Jonathan Eckstein's Business Decision Analytics under Uncertainty Classes 33:136:400:01/02
(Fall 2016)

This site is for both Fall 2016 sections of the course.  The Fall 2015 version is also available.

Announcements (As of March 21, 2017 11:46 AM)

Usual Office Hour Schedule

My office is 100 Rockafeller Road, room 5145.   Office hours are tentatively scheduled for

This schedule is subject to change.  You may also make appointments if regularly scheduled office hours conflict with your class schedule.

Handouts and Class Materials

  1. Wednesday, September 7:  Introduction,  procedures, syllabus, introduction to decision making under uncertainty
  2. Monday, September 12:  Decision trees, EVSI, EVPI, start formal probability theory
  3. Wednesday, September 14:  Conditional probability, Bayes' rule calculations, more decision trees
  4. Monday, September 19:  More Bayes analysis and decision trees, non-EMV decision making
  5. Wednesday, September 21:  Some more on non-EMV decision making, start critical fractile analysis
  6. Monday, September 26:  More critical fractile
  7. Wednesday, September 28:  Critical fractile case and (time permitting) Bayesian spam filtering
  8. Monday, October 3:  Review session for midterm
  9. Wednesday, October 5:  Introduction to deterministic dynamic programming
  10. First midterm exam -- attend your scheduled section
  11. Wednesday, October 12:  More deterministic dynamic programming
  12. Monday, October 17:  Go over exam results, basics of Python
  13. Wednesday, October 19:  More Python, start dynamic programming in Python
  14. Monday, October 24:  Dynamic programming in Python
  15. Wednesday, October 26:  Start stochastic dynamic programming
  16. Monday, October 31:  Dynamic programming with net present value, elementary stochastic processes
  17. Wednesday, November 2:  Using Poisson and binomial distributions in dynamic programming
  18. Monday November 7:  The curse of dimensionality, begin Monte Carlo simulation
  19. Wednesday, November 9:  Review for midterm
  20. Monday, November 14:  Second midterm exam -- attend your scheduled section
  21. Wednesday, November 16:  More Monte Carlo simulation
  22. Monday, November 21:  Go over second midterm results, start Monte Carlo simulation of queueing models
  23. Monday, November 28:  More simulation of queuing models
  24. Wednesday, November 30:  Elementary queuing theory
  25. Monday, December 5:  A bit more Pollaczek-Khinchin, introduction to simulation in Arena
  26. Wednesday, December 7:  More discrete-event simulation with Arena
  27. Monday, December 12:  Miscellaneous
  28. Wednesday, December 14:  Review for final exam

Homework Solutions

All solutions will be posted on Sakai and require a password.  They are in PDF format unless otherwise specified.

  1. Homework 1 solution
  2. Homework 2 solution
  3. Homework 3 solution
  4. Homework 4 solution (handwritten and scanned -- sorry, these calculations are tedious to typeset)
  5. Homework 5 solution (again, handwritten and scanned)
  6. Homework 6 solution
  7. Homework 7 solution
  8. Homework 8 solution
  9. Homework 9 solution
  10. Homework 10 solution