Jonathan Eckstein's Business Decision Analytics under Uncertainty Classes 33:136:400:01/02
(Spring 2017)

This site is for both Spring 2017 sections of the course.  The Fall 2016 version and earlier versions are also available.

Announcements (As of May 11, 2017 06:22 PM)

Usual Office Hour Schedule

My office is 100 Rockafeller Road, room 5145.   Office hours are tentatively scheduled for

This schedule is subject to change.  Changes will be announced above.  You may also make appointments if regularly scheduled office hours conflict with your class schedule.

Handouts and Class Materials

  1. Wednesday, January 18:  Introduction,  procedures, syllabus, introduction to decision making under uncertainty
  2. Monday, January 23:  Introduction to decision trees, probability review
  3. Wednesday, January 25:  Conditional probability and Bayes' formula
  4. Monday, January 30:  More Bayes analysis and decision trees, start revisiting non-EMV decision making
  5. Wednesday, February 1:  More non-EMV decision making (especially utility functions), start critical fractile analysis
  6. Monday, February 6:  More critical fractile, including "chunky" demand
  7. Wednesday, February 8:  Critical fractile case
  8. Monday, February 13:  Introduction to deterministic dynamic programming -- shortest path problems
  9. Wednesday, February 15:  Review for first midterm
  10. Monday, February 20:  First midterm exam
  11. Wednesday, February 22:  More dynamic programming by hand and spreadsheet
  12. Monday, February 27:  Review exam results, Python refresher
  13. Wednesday, March 1:  Finish Python refresher; our first dynamic programming solution in Python
  14. Monday, March 6:  Deterministic dynamic programming in Python
  15. Wednesday, March 8:  Introducing stochastic dynamic programming with inventory problems
  16. Monday, March 20:  More stochastic dynamic programming, start elementary stochastic processes
  17. Wednesday, March 22:  More elementary stochastic processes, using Poisson processes within dynamic programming calculations
  18. Monday, March 27:  The curse of dimensionality, start simulation techniques, discuss format of second midterm
  19. Wednesday, March 29:  Review for midterm, multi-period simulation (inventory)
  20. Monday, April 3:  Second midterm exam
  21. Wednesday, April 5:  Multi-period simulation
  22. Monday, April 10:  Return exams, more multi-period simulation, start Excel simulation of queuing systems
  23. Wednesday, April 12:  More Excel simulation of queuing systems
  24. Monday, April 17:  Elementary queuing theory
  25. Wednesday, April 19:  A bit more Pollaczek-Khinchin, introduction to discrete-event simulation with Arena
  26. Monday, April 24:  More discrete-event simulation with Arena
  27. Wednesday, April 26:  Miscellaneous
  28. Monday, May 1:  Review for final exam

Tuesday, May 9, 12pm-3pm:  Final exam for 1:40pm section

Wednesday, May 10, 12pm-3pm:  Final exam for 3:20pm section

Homework Solutions

All solutions will be posted on Blackboard and require a password.  They are in PDF format unless otherwise specified.