Jonathan Eckstein's Business Decision Analytics under Uncertainty Classes
33:136:400:01/02
(Spring 2017)
This site is for both Spring 2017 sections of the course.
The Fall
2016 version and earlier versions are also available.
Announcements (As of
May 11, 2017 06:22 PM)

It's over! Final exam scores, overall course scores, and course letter
grades may all be viewed on
Blackboard. Please see my
email of May 11 for details, and have a great summer.

I observe a twoweek "cooling off" period between posting
course grades and discussing grades with students. I will not
respond to any emails or other communication sent about grades during the
cooling off period. The only exceptions are the very rare cases in
which a student might be prevented from graduating.

This website is the primary class website,
containing all publicly releasable material. Limitedrelease material
such as homework solutions may be found on
Blackboard. I will also
occasionally use Blackboard for file formats that cannot be hosted on this
server.
Usual Office Hour Schedule
My office is 100 Rockafeller Road, room 5145. Office hours are
tentatively scheduled for
 Tuesdays 2:005:00pm from January 24 through April 25, except
 No office hours February 21 (after first midterm)
 No office hours March 14 (spring break)
 No office hours April 4 (after second midterm)
 See the syllabus for extra office hours scheduled before exams.
This schedule is subject to change. Changes will be announced above. You may also make appointments if regularly scheduled
office hours conflict with your class schedule.
Handouts and Class Materials
 Wednesday, January 18: Introduction, procedures, syllabus,
introduction to decision making under uncertainty
 Monday, January 23: Introduction to decision trees, probability
review
 Wednesday, January 25: Conditional probability and Bayes' formula
 Monday, January 30: More Bayes analysis and decision trees, start
revisiting nonEMV decision making
 Wednesday, February 1: More nonEMV decision making (especially
utility functions), start critical fractile analysis
 Monday, February 6: More critical fractile, including
"chunky" demand
 Wednesday, February 8: Critical fractile case
 Monday, February 13: Introduction to deterministic dynamic
programming  shortest path problems
 Wednesday, February 15: Review for first midterm
 Exam practice material is now posted on
Blackboard under "Course
Documents"

Monday, February 20: First
midterm exam
 Wednesday, February 22: More dynamic
programming by hand and spreadsheet
 Monday, February 27: Review exam results, Python refresher
 Wednesday, March 1: Finish Python refresher; our first dynamic
programming solution in Python
 Monday, March 6: Deterministic dynamic programming in Python
 Integer knapsack problems
 General algorithmic/code template for deterministic dynamic
programming
 The police cars problem (general tablebased resource allocation)
 Wednesday, March 8: Introducing stochastic dynamic programming with
inventory problems
 Monday, March 20: More stochastic dynamic programming, start
elementary stochastic processes
 Modified inventory problem that has shortage costs instead of a requirement to
always be able to meet demand
 Including net present value and discounting in dynamic programming
 Bernoulli processes: Bernoulli, binomial, and geometric random
variables
 Wednesday, March 22: More elementary stochastic processes, using
Poisson processes within dynamic programming calculations
 Monday, March 27: The curse of dimensionality, start simulation
techniques, discuss format of second midterm
 Wednesday, March 29: Review for midterm, multiperiod simulation
(inventory)
 Review: question 2 of the midterm practice material posted on
Blackboard

Monday, April 3: Second
midterm exam
 Wednesday, April 5: Multiperiod simulation
 Monday, April 10: Return exams, more
multiperiod simulation, start Excel simulation of queuing systems
 Wednesday, April 12: More Excel simulation of queuing systems
 Monday, April 17: Elementary queuing theory
 Wednesday, April 19: A bit more PollaczekKhinchin, introduction to
discreteevent simulation with Arena
 Link to Arena installation file
 sorry, Arena is for Windows only!
 Link
to a newer version on the Arena website (the differences seem
fairly minimal; you must give a small amount of personal information
to complete the download)
 After downloading the installation file, unzip it
 Then, find and run setup.exe
 Enter "STUDENT" as your license number
 Various simulation model files for the simple query server problem are
available on
Blackboard (this server does not seem to download them correctly)
 Homework 10 will be due on Monday, May 1 (our last class), to allow
more time to learn Arena
 Monday, April 24: More discreteevent simulation with Arena
 Wednesday, April 26: Miscellaneous
 Monday, May 1: Review for final exam
 Final exam practice questions and solutions are now posted on
Blackboard
Tuesday, May 9, 12pm3pm:
Final exam for 1:40pm section
Wednesday, May 10, 12pm3pm: Final exam for
3:20pm section
Homework Solutions
All solutions will be posted on
Blackboard and require a
password. They are in PDF format unless otherwise specified.
 The solution to homework 1 is now posted on
Blackboard
 The solution to homework 2 is now posted on
Blackboard
 The solution to homework 3 is now posted on
Blackboard (with corrections to Q3 posted 9:20pm on February 17)
 The solution to homework 4 is now posted on
Blackboard (sorry, partially handwritten)
 The solution to homework 5 is now posted on
Blackboard
 The solution to homework 6 is now posted on
Blackboard
 The solution to homework 7 is now posted on
Blackboard
 The solution to homework 8 is now posted on
Blackboard
 The solution to homework 9 is now posted on
Blackboard
 The solution to homework 10 is now posted on
Blackboard (with corrections to Q2 posted 9:00am on May 5)